Prediction of bit for a week by Jeffrey (October 29th to November 4th)

Last week, there was no major change in bit market and it continued its path. The market has become more boring than expected, and the timing is the key.

It is positive to note that the spread between the tether-based exchange and the USD-based exchange has narrowed to less than $100, which was about $300 after the price of tether soared.

This is a daily candle chart of bit. Bit has been in the purple area for a long time which the price ranges from $6,830~$6,100.

Forerunners of bit are at a crossroad where they need to decide on whether to raise the market value by taking the central value within the box or to drop the price in order to make small investors sell bit.

 

Let me tell you a possible scenario.

 

First is a decline scenario.

If the price decreases, the existing large volume profile would work as a leverage, making people to pour huge amount of money back on their feet. Personally, I think it is unnecessary. 

In this case, the rebound points are $6,270 and $6,100, and they are marked in yellow.

Below this mark is hard to imagine for now. If the price falls below the mark, it is expected that the price will be restored to its original price through a near-V-like rebound.

 

Second is a rising scenario.

I personally think this scenario is more likely to happen.

To go uphill, we have to support $6,460. When supporting, the strong resisting line is $6,830, from $7,600 to $7,800, and from $8,300 to $8,500.

 

Here, resistance refers to the liquidation target price of spot position.

To conclude, the last convergence point for the triangular convergence is November 13. Moreover, for the triangular convergence to support a smooth rise, we must support the $6,460, which is the median value within the box.

It is likely that the price will go up in the first week of November at the latest.

Although the price dropped 4 days ago and yesterday, the daily price stayed at near $6,460 and rebounded.

I think forerunners are worrying about the direction of the market.

 

This is a 4-hour candle chart of bit.

It is positively interpreted that it is easier to increase the price because it is now located in an area of a relatively small volume profile after going through the thick volume profile.

The $6,460 is a 0.786 in Fibonacci ratio, which increases confidence along with the supportive line. 

In order to expect further increase in the small picture, the price should exceed and support $6,574, where the Fibonacci ratio of 0.618 and the long-term EMA line meet. 

In addition, it is likely that the tipping point will occur on November 19th.

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